This text first appeared in West Level’s Trendy Conflict Institute. 
We simply accomplished the fourth week of our new nationwide safety class at Stanford – Expertise, Innovation and Nice Energy Competitors. Joe Felter, Raj Shah and I designed the category to cowl how know-how will form all the weather of nationwide energy (America’s affect and footprint on the world stage).
In class 1, we discovered that nationwide energy is the mixture of a rustic’s diplomacy (smooth energy and alliances), info/intelligence, navy energy, financial energy, finance, intelligence, and legislation enforcement. This “entire of presidency strategy” is understood by the acronym DIME-FIL. And after 20 years centered on counter terrorism, the U.S. is now engaged in nice energy competitors with each China and Russia.
In school 2 the category centered on China, the U.S.’s main nice energy competitor. China is utilizing all components of nationwide energy: diplomacy (smooth energy, alliances, coercion), info/ intelligence (utilizing its financial leverage over Hollywood, controlling the Covid narrative), its navy would possibly and financial energy (Belt and Street Initiative) in addition to exploiting Western finance and know-how. China’s objective is to problem and overturn the U.S.-led liberal worldwide order and exchange it with a neo-totalitarian mannequin.
The third class centered on Russia, which is asserting itself as an ideal energy challenger. We discovered how Russia pursues safety and financial pursuits in parallel with its ideological goals. At occasions, these aims complement one another. At different occasions they conflict, Putin’s want to revive Russia into an ideal energy as soon as once more results in a overseas coverage that’s reverse the pursuits of the Russia folks. As Putin himself has stated, “The collapse of the Soviet Union was a significant geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” and that quote affords a window to his worldview as he tries to remake Russia into an ideal energy as soon as once more.”
Having lined the weather of nationwide energy (DIME-FIL) and China and Russia, the category now shifts to the affect business applied sciences have on DIME-FIL. Right now’s subject – Semiconductors.
Meet up with the category by studying our intro to the category, and summaries of Courses 1, 2 and 3.
Class 4 Required Readings:
Silicon Valley, the Navy, and the Journey to the Fourth Industrial Revolution
Moore’s Regulation & the World Semiconductor Trade
- Lee Bell, “What’s Moore’s Regulation? WIRED Explains the Idea that Outlined the Tech Trade” WIRED, Aug. 28, 2016.
- INTERACTIVE CHART “Common Price of Arduous Drive Storage per Gigabyte 1980-2014” Human Progress.
- Steve Clean, “Chip Trade Tutorial” Stanford Gordian Knot Middle for Nationwide Safety Innovation, September 2021.
- “Semiconductors: Expertise and Market Primer 10.0” Oppenheimer, Dec. 7, 2017
- James Timbie, “Nationwide Safety Provide Chain Resilience” The Hoover Establishment, Feb 5, 2021.
- Yan Nee Lee, “2 Charts Present how A lot the World Will depend on Taiwan for Semiconductors” CNBC, Mar. 15, 2021.
- Karen M. Sutter, “China’s New Semiconductor Insurance policies: Points for Congress” Congressional Analysis Service, Apr. 20, 2021.
- Video: The US Navy’s Semiconductor Shopping for Downside, Asianometry
Semiconductor Case Examine
Studying Project Questions:
Choose one of many beneath questions and reply in roughly 100 phrases, primarily based on the required readings. Please word that this project might be graded and depend in the direction of course participation.
- Describe the roles of Fred Terman, William Shockley, and Fairchild Semiconductor within the genesis of Silicon Valley. Who had a larger position in creating Silicon Valley, Fred Terman or the Traitorous Eight?
- How would you characterize China’s try and catch-up within the semiconductor trade? Do you assume China can credibly catch TSMC (with out an invasion of Taiwan)? Why or why not?
Dialogue Questions
- Put your self within the sneakers of Mark Liu, chairman of TSMC: Do you view China as extra of a competitor or buyer – and why?
- Now think about you’re the NSC Senior Director with accountability for know-how technique. What’s the very first thing the U.S. Gov’t ought to do relating to semiconductors?
Class 4: Visitor Speaker
Our visitor speaker for our fourth class was John Hurley, former Member of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board, an skilled on semiconductors and provide chains, and former Captain, U.S. Military.
Lecture 4
If you happen to can’t see the slides, click on right here
Slide 4. The vital position of semiconductors in nice energy competitors. Each our business and navy programs are depending on semiconductors. China spends extra on semiconductor imports than it does on oil. We framed the advances in know-how as a part of the 4th industrial revolution. Slides 5-7. We reminded the scholars of the position the DoD and IC performed at Stanford turning it into an outward-facing college, which kick-started know-how entrepreneurship right here in Silicon Valley.
Slides September 11 Twin-use know-how. For the primary time in 75 years, federal labs and our prime contractors are now not main innovation in lots of vital applied sciences together with AI, machine studying, autonomy, biotech, business entry to house, and many others. Speedy advances in these areas at the moment are taking place through business corporations – many in China. It is a radical change in the place superior know-how comes from. Within the U.S., the federal government is painfully studying learn how to reorient its necessities and acquisition course of to purchase these business, off-the-shelf applied sciences. (Merchandise which are offered commercially and to the DoD are known as “dual-use.”)
Slide 15. Semiconductor trade. We started a deep dive into semiconductors by drawing the map of the semiconductor trade (Slides 3-15 from this required studying.) 5 corporations present the vast majority of the wafer fab gear wanted to make chips. TSMC is the main fab for manufacturing logic chips. (Slides 32-33 from this required studying.) Of the 29 new fabs beginning building in 2021-22, over half are in China and Taiwan.
Slide 16. TSMC Case. We took the category by means of the TSMC case examine and mapped out the roles and pursuits of TSMC, China, Intel, and the U.S. Slides 17-18. We mentioned China’s drive for semiconductor independence, U.S. export controls on Huawei (why and its penalties,) the assorted constituencies of a U.S. semiconductor coverage (Commerce Division, DoD, U.S. chip makers, U.S. semi gear suppliers, and many others.), whether or not TSMC’s success makes Taiwan roughly safe, given China’s objectives of reunification with Taiwan.
Slide 19-20. Coverage. How do resolution makers formulate coverage? Does it begin by asking “What downside will we need to resolve?” Utilizing semiconductors for example, is it China’s entry to U.S. know-how? Or is it China embedding this superior U.S.-designed know-how into their navy programs? Or what occurs to TSMC and Western entry to superior know-how if China quarantines or invades Taiwan?
How do coverage makers choose and slim an issue? Is it primarily based on the worth the coverage provides for recognized stakeholders? Is it a private ardour/curiosity? Particularly for China and semiconductors, what are potential answer concepts? Export controls? Stronger CFIUS laws? How do you take note of stakeholder suggestions (DoD, Commerce Division, business corporations)? And when you create a coverage, how do you successfully implement it?
Slide 21 -23. Class midterm project: Assume you’re a coverage maker. Write a 2,000-word coverage memo that describes how a U.S. competitor is utilizing a selected know-how (semiconductors, AI, autonomy, cyber, and many others.) to counter U.S. pursuits. Suggest how the U.S. ought to reply.
Slides 25- 32 Group Tasks. We had a number of groups speak about their learnings from their out-of-the constructing interviews. Crew ShortCircuit (Slide 29) is engaged on how the U.S. ought to enhance its potential to design and produce semiconductors, and develop and retain related expertise. They heard from a professor that the ratio of Stanford college students taking software program versus {hardware} programs was 10-to-1 software program, a whole reversal from a long time in the past. We mentioned whether or not 1) that was true or simply anecdotal 2) if true, was it the identical in different analysis universities, 3) why it occurred (software program startups are getting funded at obscene valuations)? 4) and what sort of incentives and insurance policies can be wanted to vary that, and 5) the place within the worth chain these may be best (college students, enterprise capitalists, authorities, and many others.)
Subsequent week: Synthetic Intelligence / Machine Studying
Classes Discovered
- Semiconductors are the oil of the 21st All economies run on them.
- Semiconductors are China’s largest imports
- China’s roadmap for constructing an indigenous semiconductor trade and accelerating chip manufacturing is the Nationwide Built-in Circuit Plan
- The objective is to fulfill its native chip demand by 2030
- The U.S. depends on TSMC, positioned in Taiwan, for its most superior logic chips
- China claims Taiwan is a province of China
- TSMC will construct a fab in Arizona, however it’s going to symbolize solely 2% of its capability
- What are U.S. coverage makers’ choices?
11/02/2021 Expertise, Innovation, and Nice Energy Competitors – Class 4 – Semiconductors
Filed below: Educating, Expertise Innovation and Trendy Conflict and Nice Energy Competitors |
